October 28, 2008
On October 15, Frank Lenk, MARC's director of Research Services, presented the 2009 Greater Kansas City Economic Forecast to business and civic leaders at the annual Economic Forecast Breakfast sponsored by the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce.
The forecast is an annual report describing the national economic climate and its effects on the Kansas City area economy over the next eight quarters. The report estimates the region's expected change in output, income and employment, with employment broken down by industry.
According to the report, the recession began in mid-2008, and has already caused the region to lose about 4,000 jobs. Because of the uncertainty created by current international financial crisis, the forecast includes two scenarios. These differ in their depiction of how deep and long the recession might be, as well as how strongly the economy rebounds. In the first scenario, the recession lasts about six months and results in an additional 11,000 jobs lost in the Kansas City area. The economy recovers quickly, however, so that by the end of 2010, this loss has been halved. In the second scenario, the recession lasts about a year, resulting in an additional loss of 30,000 jobs locally. The extra job loss, in part, comes from the fact that the recovery is so slow that jobs continue to be lost even when the economy is technically not in a recession. That is, output growth is positive but not fast enough to for businesses to feel confident enough to start hiring. In this scenario, local employment does not start growing again until sometime after 2010.
It is hoped that these two scenarios realistically bracket what is most likely to happen in the future, providing sufficient information for decision-makers to make plans cognizant of the inherent risks created by the current state of the economy.
The forecast also includes outlooks for the states of Kansas and Missouri.
The 2009 Economic Forecast is available online through the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce for Chamber members. Nonmembers may purchase the electronic version of the report for $40 from the Chamber. The report is also available for $40 through MARC in printed or electronic format. To order a copy, contact Terry Anderson at 816/474-4240 or order online: hard copy or electronic version.
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