Land-Use Scenarios
Land-use scenarios are a useful tool for exploring the range of future possibilities, anticipating external forces affecting the region, listening to the desires of residents, watching emerging local trends, visualizing the future, and assessing the potential impacts of local decisions.
When a long-range land-use forecast is created, assumptions are made about future land-use decisions and policies — and their effects. The Technical Forecast Committee created two growth scenarios showing alternate ways of accommodating the region's expected overall growth.
Baseline scenario 2040
When we assume that previous growth and land use change trends continue into the future, the result is the baseline future land-use scenario.
The baseline scenario features continued decline in the region's core, development reaching into rural areas, longer commutes, and high infrastructure costs.
Adaptive scenario 2040
We have good reason to expect to not follow past trends due to forces affecting the region's future, such as climate change, globalization, technological changes, and demographic changes. We may see rising energy and gasoline prices, and older and smaller households. The adaptive future land-use scenario assumes that the region adapts well to these forces.
Local governments have already begun to reflect residents' demand for more sustainable communities in recent plans. The adaptive scenario shows how the region might look if this trend in local plans is extended into the future and carried out at a regional scale.
The Technical Forecast Committee identified land-use principles associated with greater adaptability or resilience—such as stable, diverse, walkable neighborhoods; high quality of life; and ease and freedom of movement. Recent city and county comprehensive plans (pdf) throughout the Greater Kansas City area include these principles, and community outreach efforts like Imagine KC confirm that residents desire vibrant communities and efficient use of resources.
The MARC Board also voiced its commitment to these principles and adopted as a regional vision:
"Greater Kansas City is a sustainable region that increases the vitality of our society, economy and environment for current residents and future generations."
In order to create a final forecast from two scenarios, assumptions must be made about how much progress the region will make toward this vision by 2040.
The adaptive land-use principles have been translated into an adaptive scenario future land-use map (pdf) which features more dense and diverse neighborhood and activity centers, and more comprehensive protection of natural resources.
In this imagined scenario, neighborhood, employment, and activity centers are located where potential is high for future development or redevelopment at greater densities than what is shown in local land use plans, according to the vision of the adaptive scenario.
Centers have also been located to achieve greater regional coverage, with the assumption that, in the adaptive scenario, access is maximized to neighborhood-scale services, transit and employment opportunities for as much of the region as possible.
Existing commercial, employment and activity centers have also been included, with the assumption that some growth or redevelopment would be expected over the 30-year forecast period.
Note: Both scenarios show same amount of new population
added to the region.