Be prepared this ozone season

Members of the MARC Air Quality Forum heard a 2026 ozone season outlook report at their April 15 meeting. The report, presented by Sullivan Brown, Weather or Not operations manager, said that despite the rain in April, the Kansas City region is still in a drought. Brown said he expects more precipitation through May, and any cloud cover will help reduce the ozone potential. He said we can expect clear and moderate days.

“The expansive western drought continues — no relief in sight — and will enhance ridging to our west for much of the upcoming summer and fall,” Brown said. “An east-west flow allows for back-and-forth temperatures, with rain and storm chances every two to four days, which should help keep early-season ozone levels in check overall.”

June and July

These months will be more active, according to Brown, but still mild. This change could create opportunities for some exceedance days. He said as we go into midsummer, western ridging expands eastward and rain and storm chances decrease.

August and September

Brown said we can expect a blend of the previous months toward the end of the summer and Canadian wildfire smoke will still be a concern.

“Flow will be generally from the northwest,” Brown said. “This pattern typically brings cleaner air with seasonable temperatures.” 

October and November

Over the last couple of months of the ozone season, Brown said we might have some days with ozone concerns.

“Western ridging, (an area of high atmospheric pressure that creates a ‘ridge,’ which traps pollutants near the ground and leads to poor air quality) expands eastward, and rain and storm chances lower,” Brown said.

Key takeaways 

Overall, Brown said June to August will be the peak ozone alert period, with the possibility of some ozone alerts in late August.

“Like typical seasons, June to August will be our peak of ozone alert day potential,” Brown said. “But, we cannot rule out alerts early in the season with wildfire smoke and the Kansas Flint Hills prescribed burning. The pattern will quickly break for September and October. Cooler conditions and potentially an active pattern should bring green and a few yellow days to wrap up the ozone season.”

Be air aware

MARC tracks regional air quality and issues a daily SkyCast forecast from March to October. The Skycast gives the ground-level ozone forecast.