Travel Demand Forecast Model

The Regional Travel Demand Forecast Model is a tool to forecast traffic and travel in the Kansas City metro area. Its primary purpose is to support the development of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan. In addition, the model supports the evaluation of proposed roadway projects, helps evaluate potential impacts of proposed development projects and supports other studies of the region, subareas, corridors and other planning activities. The Missouri and Kansas departments of transportation (MoDOT and KDOT) use the travel model to support studies related to improvements on the state highway systems.

Process

The travel model has been calibrated to reflect the base year of 2015 and contains future year data forecasting conditions in the years 2040 and 2050. It is an adaptation of the standard four-step modeling process. These four steps are:

  1. Trip generation
  2. Trip distribution
  3. Mode choice
  4. Traffic assignment

Each of the four steps addresses a question about travel behavior. Key inputs to the model include roadway and transit networks along with information about land use in the form of household and employment data. Changes to assumptions about transportation networks or land use data will result in different traffic and transit volume outputs.

Travel Demand Forecast Model Map

MARC Regional Travel Demand Forecast Model (TDM) is a tool to forecast traffic and travel in the Kansas City metro area. Its primary purpose is to support the development of the Metropolitan Transportation Plan. In addition, the model supports the evaluation of proposed roadway projects, helps evaluate potential impacts of proposed development projects and supports other studies of the region, subareas, corridors, and other planning activities.

The TDM map displays the base year model assignment, future traffic volume forecasts, and relevant socio-economic data summarized by Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) for the MARC planning area.

The map was last updated on May 20, 2022. The traffic forecasts use the Version16 TDM. The base model was calibrated and validated in 2016. The traffic volumes on this map are direct model outputs and must be field-verified or refined before being used on a project.